Morrowind on the Brink of War

Issues

Now this war is, as you may have guessed, a civil war. The central issue is House Redoran’s dominance of Morrowind. Ever since Redoran took over Morrowind following their defeat of the invading Argonians, they have been dominating affairs in Morrowind. For a Great House, they have unprecedented political power. This is why they were able to replace House Hlaalu with House Sardas. Needless to say, that would make them some new enemies.

The overall theme of Morrowind’s history post-Red Year is House Redoran autocratically running Morrowind. The most plain example of this is the Grand Council, which has been moved to the Redoran capital of Blacklight. However, there is a much more important detail hidden in patterns. There is an ex-Morag Tong assassin in Riften who claims that following the Red Year the Morag Tong disbanded. The only group seeming to hold to that promise is the Ashfollow Guildhall on Solsthiem. However, they are considered outlaws. I suspect that House Redoran is actively blocking the reformation of the Morag Tong.

Why? Redoran is the Dunmer Warrior House. They rule through martial strength. By being the strongest, they rule. However, this is philosophy is not common among the Dunmer. Use of plots and secret murder (as inspired by Boethiah and Mephala) is the ancient way to gain power. House Redoran realizes that. They therefore have made their goal to eliminate the old system in favor of one based on strength and honor, the two categories they excel in. In order to stop the old system from cropping up again, they have to supress those who used it. Namely House Hlaalu and the Morag Tong.

Many of the Dunmer people have grown discontent. Among the common people, the only number I can provide is “about half”, based on a random sampling (i.e. the people of Raven Rock). These people were willing to attack House Redoran in the name of House Hlaalu. House Redoran promptly put that to rest.

I go in detail in the Draft about the other factions, but I’ll make a general statement that Redoran’s autocratic policies would leave many discontent. Now I’d like to move on to issues not directly pertaining to House Redoran or its daring adventures in politics.

The Tribunal Temple is on the verge of a total schism. I would guess, based on the Raven Rock sample, 1/3 of the Temple still would like to follow ALMSIVI, whereas the other 2/3 (many likely being former Dissident Priests) prefer the Good Daedra. I doubt the Temple has the capacity to peacefully schism.

Whether or not Morrowind is still part of the Empire is debatable. The Empire would likely try to resolve that debate before the next war with the Dominion. Depending on how Great War II goes, factions in Tamriel may try to force Morrowind to take a side.

In the area wasted by the Red Year, there is still huge wealth in the form of minerals and Dwemer ruins. Those are incredible prizes.

Forces

House Redoran has a bonafide standing army. There’s no way around that.

House Indoril likely has some fight left in it. How much I can’t say for certain. The Ordinators would be formidable, if they are even a shadow of what they were in 3E427. However, they and House Dres may still be licking wounds they have no means of healing.

House Sardas is a wild-card. Since we have so little data on their means and motives, I can only guess. It could be that they are merely a Redoran puppet. A more intriguing possibility is that they gamed the political system to wedge themselves in as the newest House. In the latter case, they would have resources of their own. If you’re feeling imaginative, maybe they’re a Hlaalu puppet. Still, this is pure speculation.

House Hlaalu still commands considerable resources, apparently. If the Raven Rock sampling is indicative, then they might be able to start a chain reaction to propel themselves back into political relevance.

The Tribunal Temple, House Telvanni and the Morag Tong are hard to measure. They don’t command military might, but they do have significant power.

Western powers like the Empire, Skyrim or the Aldmeri Dominion are likely going to be preoccupied. But if they perceive a threat or opportunity in Morrowind, they’re likely enough to take an interest. Argonia is likely to take advantage of a weakened Morrowind, or they might not.

The War Itself

House Hlaalu would likely be the ones to initiate a conflict. The logical thing to do would be to send agents, guerrillas and saboteurs to seize assests like Dunmer Strongholds, Dwemer ruins and mines. At the same time, Hlaalu allies in population centers would rise up. I believe this was the intention behind the Raven Rock coup, but it failed before coming to fruition.

At that point, Redoran would draw out it’s armies. Most of the Hlaalu front-line forces would be situated in strongholds. However, for the opening phases of the war they would have very limited ability to fight Redoran directly. Accordingly they would attempt to spread the Redoran army out as much as possible using their larger guerrilla force.

This would likely be timed with a schism in the Temple, accidentally or otherwise. The tension would be building, and a war would break them. Other Houses would be taking sides. The particulars of siding for each House would be more complex than I could do service to by guessing, so I won’t try. What I can say more certainly is that House Telvanni would likely stay out of the war, and the Ashlanders would likely lean toward House Hlaalu.

Once the war seems to be going a certain way, the losing side may become desperate enough to contact outside powers. Maybe. It could be that the some of the Houses would sooner accept defeat than accept an alliance with the Empire, Dominion or Skyrim. However, I can envision House Hlaalu willing to look outside for more options, being opportunists to the core. House Redoran respects strength of arms, which would improve their opinion of Skyrim or the Empire.

However, the entry of any outside party would likely redefine the war. Anti-Imperial sentiment is still strong in Morrowind, and it’s unlikely that the Dunmer have forgiven the Argonians or Dominion yet (assuming the Aldmer dropped Baar Dau). However, the large Dunmer population in Skyrim and Skyrim’s ceding of Solsthiem would possibly make the Dunmer people less hateful of the Nords. That does assume a particular ending to the Skyrim Civil War, so it’s HIGHLY unlikely.

Anyway, if an outside faction came to fight in Morrowind, it would redefine the sides. A theoretical Imperial invasion would possibly lead to a ceasefire. House Telvanni would take more interest in the war if that were to occur.

Conclusion

Political and Religious tensions are on the rise in Morrowind due to shifts in both of those areas recently. These will likely explode in the very near future.

If MK or a dev sees this and gets ideas, I will eternally regret writing this. Unlikely, but it would be awful.