Speculation on Nerevar, the Nerevarine and Jubal-lun-Sul

Before the release of C0DA, there was a post on MK's tumblr hyping it up. One of the tags on the post was "The Name of the Nerevarine", implying that it would be revealed at some point in the course of the narrative. Now, a simple "is" statement is not MK's style, and the chances of a straight answer were virtually zero (unless the whole time C0DA was a piece of software that found your oldest Morrowind save and told you the name of the character). Now, lacking an obvious suspect for Nerevarine, I, and some others, pointed to the main character, Jubal-lun-Sul. The obvious response to that assertion is "Jubal was born in the Velothiid". My counter-argument is this: he is the other reincarnation of Nerevar.

Now, we all know that it is not strictly true that the Nerevarine was the reincarnation of Nerevarine, but it seems nearly certain that the Nerevarine mantled Nerevar. Accordingly, if Jubal is truly the Nerevarine, then he would be required to mantle Nerevar. So, let's map out the parrelells.

Absent Parents

Nerevar's parents are not known to history. While normally it would be fair to disregard this, we have to remember that the Velothi have the most intensive respect for the ancestors. That Nerevar's parents are absent is, on it's own, merely an oddity, but given that it may be part of a pattern elevates it above mere coincidence. Obviously we know him as "Indoril Nerevar", but people around here seem to think that "Indoril" existed as a title before it was a house, and the house was named after Nerevar.

Those who've played Morrowind know well: "Born on an uncertain day to uncertain parents." The Nerevarine's parents are not known.

Jubal-lun-Sul is a wealthy bachelor. His parents, whoever they were, are unnamed and dead. One can tell they are dead or permanently out of the picture given that Jubal has evidently inherited their property. He may be descended from Haeko-dol-Sul, but the phrasing leaves it ambiguous and still doesn't account for Jubal's parents.

In short: we never hear about the parents of either of these three figures.

Azura Connection

I know, I know. "The Anticipations/Reclaimations/Good Daedra are not present in C0DA." Written out of history and whatnot (except for Mephala, apparently, who appears in a Thirysix Lessons quote). But until some light is shed on the situation, all we have are some spooky phrases tied to Dies Irae. And chances of Dies Irae meeting our expectations are near zero, so until it's revealed factoring it into speculation is useless.

Now, Nerevar and the Nerevarine were sent by Azura. This is a point that deserves little argument. Of course the Nerevarine was in no way bound to stay loyal to Azura, Morrowind starts and ends with a positive speech by Azura. Jubal-lun-Sul, though, is more interesting. He has no stated connection to Azura... except his name. In most instances, "Sul" indicates an Azura worshiper. See: Alandro Sul, Sul-Matuul, Sul-Senipal. The major exception is Arden Sul. Given everything we know about him, it stands to reason that he breaks rules.

Then, we have Haeko-dol-Sul. First Dunmer child born in the Velothiid, which is on the moon. The moon, in Dunmer culture, is associated with Azura. It's a compelling connection, and it implies a further connection between Jubal and Azura. However, this relationship lacks direct evidence, and even if it does exist the nature of it is unknown.

But in short, Nerevar and the Nerevarine have Azura connections, and there is reason to believe Jubal does too. Jubal may not even know it (he doesn't come across as pious), and Azura may not even exist anymore, but there is reason to suspect there's more to it. Or, MK could continue his evident anti-Azura bias and utterly invalidate this analysis.

Vivec Connection

The connection between Nerevar, the Nerevarine and Jubal-lun-Sul and Vivec is clear. To sum it all up: Vivec acts as a mentor figure to the person in question. But, since it's Vivec, mentoring is less about practical skills and more about esoteric concepts. The Thirtysix Lessons are the embodiment of Vivec's mentoring. Vivec initially teaches these things to Nerevar, then records the teachings in the Thirty-Six lessons for the Nerevarine, then somehow transmits the lessons to Jubal. He was evidently most successful with Jubal, since Jubal went Amaranth.

Mediator

...between the Tribunal and the Good Daedra. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: we view those groups to be in a conflict of interest. Since Azura and Vivec are the members of those groups who get the most screentime, we see them in particular to be at war. But there are two times when, I think, they came together. Nerevar and the Nerevarine. In those two instances, as discussed above, they both preformed functions critical to the success of Nerevar(ine). This are world-changing moments: defeat of the Dwemer and of Dagoth. But when the cooperation ends, tragedy ensues. Foul Murder, Sun's Death, the Red Year, transformation of the Dunmer, these are all post-cooperation spats between the Tribunal and the Good Daedra. They're also known as some of the worst catastrophes in the contemporary kalpa.

So part of Nerevar(ine)'s role is to mediate between the Good Daedra and the Tribunal. This middle path gives the Nerevarine leave to preform great deeds at crucial moments in the history of Veloth. Until it breaks down and Red Mountain goes up.

Messiah Figure

When I first played Morrowind, it was not long after I first read Dune. The parallels were incredible. My image of the Fremen and the Ashlanders combined, and I fell in love with the synthesized image. What was I saying? Right, the Nerevarine is a classic messiah figure, as is Nerevar. Enduring great peril and trial to lead the people to victory. And then we have this quote from Jubal: "I want a very great thing for the whole of my people. Call it a messiah complex, if you must." You heard it straight from him: a huge, constant trait between the three of them.

Numidium

Then, the last thing they all have in common is that Numidium is the greatest threat, but at no point do they fight it physically. The Chimer declared war on the Dwemer to destroy the abomination created with the Heart of Lorkhan. The Nerevarine's goal is to destroy Dagoth Ur and the Heart before the Second Numidium can be completed. Jubal's task to win Vivec's hand and achieve Amaranth is to go into Morgoth's own fortress of Angband and from his very crown retrieve a Silmaril hunt a Numidium.

Conclusion

The parallels between Nerevar and the Nerevarine happen to also be shared with Jubal-lun-Sul. The only missing piece of the puzzle, if my conjecture can be accepted, is the Moon-and-Star ring.

Post Script: Two Hypotheses on Uncertain Birth

First hypothesis: Nerevar(ine) is the closest thing to a child a Daedroth can have. Given everything, Azura is likely the parent, but I'll have you know I picked the word hypothesis carefully. A hypothesis is an informed guess, less than a theory (which requires evidence).

Second hypothesis: The Nerevarine had to be an outlander. This ties in more with the mediator role and the Prophecy of the Stranger, but is still important. My assertion is that the Nerevarine had to be an outlander so that s/he didn't have preexisting loyalties to the Good Daedra or the Tribunal, making her/him an impartial mediator.