On the Accession War and the subsequent borders.

Greetings. I have been a lore scholar for a number of years now, particularly in regard to the history of eastern Tamriel: Morrowind, Black Marsh, and to a lesser extent Nibenay and Skyrim. I am writing here to put forward a theory as to the results of the Accession War, also known as the Argonian Invasion of Morrowind, in 4E 5.

I will go through my theory using a set of regions that I have devised for Morrowind to make it easier to explain. Here's a map of Morrowind:

http://www.tamriel-rebuilt.org/g/maps/map_mw_factions.jpg

and here is a glossary of regional terms I will be using, along with those marked on the map (I am NOT suggesting these are real administrative divisions of Morrowind):

Deshaan = self-explanatory. Capital Tear. Uvonak = the Narsis region, or any Hlaalu land lying south of Andaram Lake and the Deshaan-Kragenmoor district border. Capital Narsis. Indar = the piece of land bordered by Cyrodiil to the west, the Thirr River to the east, the border with "Uvonak" to the south, and a line at equal latitude to Septim's Gate Pass to the north. Capital Kragenmoor. Veloth = the part of Veloth District not in "Indar", making up the core of Redoran territory. Capital Blacklight. South Indoril = Mournhold District south of a line drawn between Darnim and Sailen. Capital Mournhold-Almalexia. North Indoril = the rest of Mournhold District. Capital Necrom. Telvannis = self-explanatory. Capital Port Telvannis.

Here's the Bethesda terrain map of Morrowind, which I will also refer to:

http://www.imperial-library.info/sites/default/files/gallery_files/concept_morrowind.jpg

Here goes:

The initial Argonian motive for the war appears to have been revenge for slavery (Lymdrenn Tenvanni's Journal, TESV). Therefore, it seems likely that the Argonians would attack through Deshaan before considering Uvonak, as the former is Dres land (slavers) and the latter is Hlaalu (conflicted: seemingly mostly anti-slavery because of Imperial connections, but also includes slave plantation owners such as Orvas Dren). Also, crucially, the fanatical mob element of the invasion - that element which it is impossible to negotiate with - almost certainly hit Deshaan much harder than Uvonak.

From the terrain map, we can see that Deshaan is mostly marsh. Given that it is Dres territory, therefore, it is safe to assume that Deshaan remains Argonian-controlled after the events of the war. Marsh doesn't lend itself to borders, but it does lend itself to Argonians. Furthermore, we know from the result of the Arnesian War that Black Marsh controlled, in the Second Era, some of what was Deshaan during the Red Year. Mudflats also seem to be more Argonian- than Dunmer-friendly, and they constitute the rest of Deshaan. What Dunmer remained alive in Deshaan after the Argonian invasion probably fled north for the most part, especially seeing as Mournhold wasn't damaged much in the Red Year (The Red Year, TESV). These factors lead me to the conclusion that it is likely that most of Deshaan is culturally Argonian by 4E 201.

On to South Indoril. The mob of Argonians was probably less numerous by the time Deshaan was subjugated, but still strong, as the "take the capital" mentality still existed. We know from Adril Arano in TESV Dragonborn (TESVD for short) that the Argonians sacked Mournhold. We also know that the capital of Morrowind in 4E 201 is Blacklight. It seems unlikely that the capital of Morrowind would still be Blacklight in 4E 201 if the Dunmer were still in control of Mournhold, as they had 196 years to repair the damage. Although it is possible that keeping the capital in Blacklight was a Redoran political act, it does not seem this way. If such events were common, the capital would have shifted from Mournhold to Narsis sometime in the Third Era as power moved from the Indoril to the Hlaalu. Therefore, the Argonians did not evacuate Mournhold after the war ended. The Argonians also probably took over the rest of South Indoril, as after Mournhold fell there was nothing to stop them from creating a land link to Bal Foyen, the area which ESO revealed was inhabited by Argonians in the Second Era. Whether it still was in 4E 5 is another debate, but it does mean that the area is Argonian-friendly. This is also supported by the existence of the Inlet Bog Region from Tamriel Rebuilt (along the same coastline).

Uvonak is an interesting case. Although it is close to Argonia, its inhabitants are the least bigoted in Morrowind. The Hlaalu were also expelled from the Council of Morrowind (TESVD) and references to them tend to refer to them "selling theur country for ten septims" or something along those lines. It is also notable that the Hlaalu were organised enough in 4E 95 to send an assassin to Solstheim. (History of Raven Rock, TESVD). This leads me to believe that the Hlaalu made some sort of pact with the Argonians, resulting in Uvonak becoming a protectorate of Argonia, with trade preference and other terms similar to the Third Era relationship between Hlaalu and Cyrodiil. It also didn't hurt that this resulted in Narsis not being destroyed by an angry mob. The actual situation in Uvonak probably didn't change much. If anything, the Hlaalu were better off, as they were now free to trade with Black Marsh while only losing about half of Morrowind. That's not to say the Hlaalu kept all of their land (more on that later).

Velothis is the easiest one to work out. Blacklight is the capital of Morrowind in 4E 201 and the Redoran are by far the most powerful of the Houses, so the Velothis region is still Dunmer-controlled.

Telvannis poses a challenge to the lore scholar. There are seemingly three references to it that all contradict each other: Lymdren Tenvanni's journal, which implies that the Telvanni have been wiped out; Adril Arano in TESVD, who implies that the Argonians never reached it ("swathes of southern Morrowind"); and Neloth, who has a lot of Telvanni-based dialogue which all but confirms that they are still alive and kicking in the northeast. (There really is a lot of it: check the UESP page). Taking all of these as true, we can begin to paint a picture of Fourth Era Telvannis. Remember that Arano is in Solstheim and is a Redoran of Blacklight, so everything is south in his mind. The other two then make it clear what happened: the Telvanni lands were fully occupied by Argonians, but rebelled once the invaders had their backs turned, probably due to a Redoran assault from Velothis.

North Indoril is the part of Morrowind I'm least sure about. I'm pretty sure it's not Indoril-controlled, seeing as Mournhold fell, although there are probably enough Indoril loyalists in Necrom to make being the guard captain there (of whatever occupying force there is) one of the worst postings in Tamriel. The question is where the border between the Argonian state and the newly resurgent Telvanni ended up being after hostilities ceased. Everything between Llothanis and Dun Akafell is mountainous with the exception of the Helnim plain (Tamriel Rebuilt; it can be assumed that everything north of Llothanis was retaken by the Telvanni, and everything south of Dun Akafell was occupied by the Argonians), which seems to point to Telvanni controlling most of it. However, do the Telvanni really want to deal with Indoril rebels? I'm not setting this in stone, but my opinion is that the Argonian-Telvanni border is roughly the same as the Telvanni-Indoril border in the Third Era, not too far north of Akamora.

I'd like to digress from the regional analysis here to clean up a loose end that might have a lot of you thinking there's a gaping hole in the theory. Yes, the Council, according to Lleril Morvayn in TESVD, features Dres and Indoril representatives as well as Redoran, Telvanni, and Sadras. But think for a minute. Firstly, would the Argonians accept any sort of political power remaining in the hands of the Dres, who made life in Arnesia a misery (to say the least) for millennia? I doubt it. Secondly, Adril Arano refers to many Dunmer being "exiled from their homeland". Not only does this almost disprove the 'the-borders-are-exactly-the-same' hypothesis entirely, but it raises the possibility - I would say probability - that the Dres and Indoril representatives are people from said houses who managed to flee north early enough to reach Blacklight and escape the Argonian armies. Whether they have any power or not is another matter, especially seeing as the Dres economy is ruined and the Indoril probably suffered from the large-scale religious shift to Daedra worship in the Dunmer population (The Reclamations, TESVD). Said book also includes another important line: "While House Indoril still technically exists, the priesthood of the Temple are now considered one and the same with House Indoril - those who become priests are now considered to have "joined Indoril."." There you have it. The Indoril have negligible power.

Which brings us to Indar. I've always been fascinated by Indar, the region of mountains and ashlands in west-central Morrowind which seems to change loyalties between Hlaalu and Redoran quite frequently and which is almost never mentioned in the lore. As for borders, it has become apparent that the Dunmer-Argonian border lies somewhere within Indar or around its edges. By the time the Argonian armies marched northwest, they had already dealt with Dres, Indoril, and Telvanni (at least temporarily in that last case), and so the invasion probably lost a lot of its fervour when the armies were striking Indar. Therefore, who wins there appears to be dependent on the relative merits of the Dunmeri and Argonian fighting forces rather than sheer numbers or morale. If you look at Tamriel Rebuilt's Indar from above, most of it seems to be terrain which the Dunmer - especially Redoran Dunmer - are more at home in than Argonians, namely mountains and ashlands. However, the one piece of terrain the Argonians have going for them is the Thirr River. Seeing as Argonians are amphibious, any attack by Dunmer across the Thirr is likely to result in an Argonian victory. However, any attack by Argonians through the Armun Ashlands or Roth Roryn would result in a Dunmer victory. Therefore, it is most probable that the Argonian-Redoran border is either the Thirr River or the foot of the mountains to the west of it. Seeing as some of Indar is traditionally Hlaalu, including the only city in the region (Kragenmoor), it is also probable that Indar is the bastion of the newly formed House Sadras (Morvayn's dialogue) by 4E 201.

That looks like the borders are pretty much settled, but there is one question to clear up. The Telvanni control about as much land as the Redoran, if Sadras claims around Kragenmoor are excluded from the latter. If that is the case, then why would Redoran wield far more power than Telvanni without the latter going into open rebellion? I can think of only one reasonable explanation - the Telvanni lands are de facto independent of Morrowind in 4E 201. This state of affairs probably either started when the Telvanni retook their towers from the Argonians, or around 4E 40 when the Telvanni could cope with some fighting without being attacked by the Argonians again, seeing as the latter were preoccupied with the Umbriel crisis.

Here's an explanatory map: http://imgur.com/gallery/yEzNTur

Phew, that took a long time (especially on a Reddit post window!). /r/teslore, let me know what you think.